Earthquake Scenarios

An earthquake scenario tells the story of a defined earthquake and its consequences, to help communities understand the physical social, economic and environmental impacts of that earthquake.

Scenarios are useful tools for response planning, training and exercises; mitigation planning; recovery planning, training and exercises; and educational and awareness outreach.

The NEHRP Scenario Project (www.nehrpscenario.org) grew out of an Earthquake Scenario Planning Workshop in 2008 and the website contains a complete look at defining, creating, and implementing earthquake scenarios.

Many of the WSSPC states and communities have created their own scenarios, from the smallest to largest scales. These scenarios are linked below to their reports.

County of Hawai'i (2007)

This scenario looks at the island of Hawai'i and was the recipient of the 2007 Overall WSSPC Award in Excellence.

Earthquake Hazards and Estimated Losses in the County of Hawaii

Borah Peak, Idaho (2008)

Idaho Bureau of Homeland Security and Idaho Geological Survey combined efforts to use HAZUS Level I to compare modeled damage estimates with actual ones from the 1983 M 7.1 earthquake.

Executive Summary       HAZUS Run

Cascadia Scenarios

• Planning Scenario in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties, California for a Great Earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone,  California Geological Survey Special Publication 115 (1995)
• Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes: A Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake Scenario, The Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup (2005) www.crew.org/CREWCascadiaFinal.pdf.  Recipient of the 2007 WSSPC Award in Excellence in Outreach.
• Earthquake Damage in Oregon: Preliminary Estimates of Future Earthquake Losses, Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (1999). Winner of 2000 WSSPC Award in Excellence for Research Projects.

The Great Southern California ShakeOut! (2008)

A copy of the full technical report, The ShakeOut Scenario - The Effects of a Potential M7.8 Earthquake on the San Andreas fault in Southern California, is available online as CGS Preliminary Report 25 /  USGS Open-File Report 2008-1150: http://www.consrv.ca.gov/cgs/information/publications/sr/Documents/PR25.pdf or http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150.

A non-technical summary narrative of the Scenario,

http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324.

Seattle Fault, Washington (2005)

Winner of the 2007 WSSPC Award in Excellence in Outreach.

Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault (2005).

http://www.eeri.org/site/projects/eq-scenarios/seattle-fault

Nevada Counties (2006)

Loss Estimation Modeling of Earthquake Scenarios for Each County in Nevada Using HAZUS-MH

http://www.nbmg.unr.edu/dox/of061/of061.htm

California

Estimation of Future Earthquake Losses in California

http://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/rghm/loss/Pages/index.aspx

Hayward Fault

Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault (1996)

http://www.eeri.org/site/projects/eq-scenarios/hayward-fault-1996

Estimating Economic Losses in the Bay Area from a Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake (2007)

http://1868alliance.org/resources/HaywardEQMLR.pdf

The following are California Geological Survey Special Publications (SP):

Planning Scenario for a Major Earthquake on the Rodgers Creek Fault in the Northern San Francisco Bay Area (1994)

Planning Scenario for a Major Earthquake on the San Jacinto Fault in the San Bernardino Area (1993)

Planning Scenario for a Major Earthquake in the San Diego-Tijuana Metropolitan Area (1990)

Planning Scenario for a Major Earthquake on the Newport-Inglewood Fault Zone [Los Angeles and

Orange Counties, California] (1988)

Earthquake Planning Scenario for a Magnitude 7.5 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area, California (1987)

Earthquake Planning Scenario for a Magnitude 8.3 Earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area, California (1982)

Earthquake Planning Scenario for a Magnitude 8.3 Earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California (1982)

San Francisco Bay Area

1906 Earthquake Repeat:
When the Big One Strikes Again: Estimating Losses due to a Repeat of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake (2003)

http://www.1906eqconf.org/mediadocs/BigonestrikesReport.pdf

Hetch Hetchy Water and the Bay Area Economy

http://www.bayeconfor.org/pdf/hetchhetchyfinal2.pdf