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Earthquake Quarterly - Spring
1997


This newsletter is a production of the Western States Seismic Policy Council
121 Second Street, 4th Floor San Francisco, California 94105
415/974-6422 fax 415/974-1747
e-mail: wsspc@wsspc.org
web address: http://www.wsspc.org

Steven Ganz, Executive Director
Andrea James, Administrative Assistant

What Is Seismic Policy?


The Western States Seismic Policy Council's (WSSPC) mission is to provide a forum to advance earthquake hazard reduction programs throughout the Western Region and to develop, recommend, and present seismic policies and programs through information exchange, research, and education.

WSSPC is pursuing its mission though convening the Basin and Range Province Seismic Hazards Summit, May 12-15, in Reno, Nevada. During the event presentations will not only focus on the newest technology and research, but will also consider how these development can impact policy to minimize loss of life and property. The pursuit of seismic policy is set as a high priority for our organization.

Many of you have asked or wondered: What is SEISMIC POLICY? First perhaps we need to define "policy" or "government policy." (The dictionary defines it as a principle, plan, or course of action as pursued by government.) Following the dictionary definition using the word "principle," I would define government policy as the philosophical basis for laws and regulations adopted by government. Seismic policy would then be such government policy that relates to earthquake hazards and earthquake mitigation. As examples, seismic policy encompasses such items as funding for research at the federal level, guidelines for evaluating and mitigating seismic hazards (such as California Division of Mines and Geology's recent Special Publication 117 by that name), and recommendations for changes in building codes adopted by local governments.

An example of a policy recommendation that might come out of discussions at the Basin and Range Summit would be a motion to define as an active fault in the Basin and Range Physiographic Province one that has moved within the last 130,000 years rather than one that has moved in the last 10,000 years, which is how an active fault is defined in California's Alquist-Priolo Act.

The Summit's recommendations for WSSPC policy positions will be forwarded to the WSSPC Basin and Range Province Committee, who will discuss them and forward them to the WSSPC Board of Directors for consideration at their meeting on July 9. Following WSSPC Bylaws, the Board of Directors will review these and forward perhaps reworded recommendations for adoption by the full membership of WSSPC at their annual meeting November 4-7, 1997, in Victoria, B.C.

Sections of the article were excerpted from Dr. Jonathan Price's opening remarks given at the Basin and Range Province Seismic Hazards Summit, May 13 in Reno, Nevada. Dr. Jonathan Price is the Director of the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology.

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CALL FOR EXHIBITORS -
WSSPC Annual Conference 1997


On behalf of the Western States Seismic Policy Council (WSSPC), we are extending the invitation for organizations to set up an exhibit at our Annual Conference to be held November 4-7. We are confident that this year's conference will be our best ever and the exhibit fair will be a huge success.

In addition to displays you may also sponsor an event such as meals, the conference banquet and the socials. Sponsorship of these events will contribute to your organization's exposure at this conference.

Sponsorship fees include breakfast and lunch on Wednesday, November 5, for two of your organization's representatives. Additional day rate passes for the conference will be available at $65 per day. Hotel rooms are available at the WSSPC conference rate of $105.00 (Canadian Currency plus tax) per night for single occupancy. For more information call the Ocean Pointe Resort Hotel (1-250/360-5860).

Over 100 registrants are expected to attend this conference including state directors and geologist as well as the people on the front line of earthquake mitigation and education. The conference will provide you with an excellent opportunity to display your products to those directly involved in the field as well as key decision makers.

Conference Sponsorship Opportunities

Exhibitor Display Booths
WSSPC will host a exhibitor fair from 7:00 p.m. - 10:00 p.m. on November 4, 1997 and from 10:00 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. and 7:00p.m. to 10:00p.m. on November 5, 1997. The buffet luncheon on Wednesday November 5, will have the displays as the primary focus. There are two booth sizes from which to choose. The basic display area will be 6' x 6'. Included in the display area will be a 6' x 18" table, two chairs and an area behind the table for self-supporting displays. Additionally, a very limited number of 12' x 8' booths will be available for self-supporting displays. (Tables can be made available for the larger display areas.)

Meal and Social Activity Sponsorships
WSSPC is offering an opportunity for organizations to sponsor conference meals and receptions. Organizations will be included in the conference program as the sponsor of the given activity, and conference organizers will announce the support of the sponsoring organization at the respective meal or event. At each of the breakfasts, lunches, socials and the conference banquet sponsors are welcome to display a sign with the sponsor name. In addition, an area at the each event will be made available for sponsors to display information.

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Planning Scenario For A Major Earthquake In Western Nevada

Craig dePolo, Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology

The Reno-Carson City urban corridor has one of the highest seismic hazards in Nevada and the chances for having one or two magnitude >6 earthquakes in the next 30 years are fairly high, based on historical earthquakes and the presence of numerous late Quaternary faults. Yet, the last 30 years have been relatively quiet seismically, with only one magnitude 6, south of Carson Valley, in 1994. This event fortunately did little overall damage, and subsequently, although the event is recalled by the public, the message of earthquake hazards and preparedness did not appear to be reinforced in a long-lasting manner. Thus, an earthquake scenario was commissioned and funded by the Nevada Earthquake Safety Council, the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The goals of the scenario are to intensify the understanding of the earthquake hazard in western Nevada, to explain potential consequences of a major event, to encourage preparedness and mitigation measures, and to enhance disaster-response planning. We have the opportunity to get ready for and minimize our losses from the next local, strong earthquake.

A magnitude 7.1 earthquake along the northern Carson Range fault system is used as the scenario event. Earthquake effects presented are Modified Mercalli earthquake intensity, surface faulting, liquefaction, and landsliding. The resulting map of intensity from the scenario event indicates very intense and potentially damaging shaking (intensity IX) in the Reno, Washoe Valley, and the Carson City areas. The surrounding mountains have intensities of VII to VIII. A zone of normal-slip surface faulting 32 km long and up to 33 m wide extends from Washoe Valley, along the base of the Carson Range, and into southwest Reno. The ground is offset 2 m vertically over much of this distance, with a localized maximum of 4 m, and the rupture decreases to 0.5 m and less in Reno. High and moderate liquefaction susceptibility areas are scattered throughout the urban corridor, and localized damage from liquefaction would be anticipated from the scenario event. Areas of major rockslide and landslide hazards pose threats mostly to transportation routes, with a few communities and utilities threatened as well.

The second part of the scenario describes some of the general consequences and impacts to lifeline utilities from the scenario event. These include general descriptions of the most hazardous types of buildings (e.g., unreinforced masonry buildings); impacts on the school system and the number of children at risk; potential impacts on medical systems, fire, police, and emergency facilities (including decision-making facilities, such as city halls, emergency operating centers, and emergency information dispatch centers); and generalizations of hazardous materials incidents. The impact on the transportation system (principally roads and airports) is described by hours or days out of service, and specifications for airports (e.g., runway length, wheel-bearing load capacity) are given for emergency planning involving large transport planes. Impacts to communication systems, electric power, natural gas, water systems, wastewater systems, and petroleum are described with input from the local utilities. Local input helps assure accuracy, but more importantly, helps obtain local "buy in" and "ownership" of the scenario, increasing its ultimate usage.

The consequences described are a combination of general impacts that likely would result from a large earthquake, and some specific, hypothetical information for illustration. Nonstructural mitigation is emphasized throughout the text.

To effectively and rapidly transfer the earthquake scenario to the community for its use we took the following steps:

1) Developed a five-phase plan:
I develop earthquake scenario
II develop some scenario consequences
III conduct workshops and enhance emergency response plans
IV conduct an earthquake exercise
V review exercise and fine tune response.
2) Involved the community in planning the scenario and the adoption of the project by the Nevada Earthquake Safety Council.
3) Held five workshops for the community at the University of Nevada, Reno. The first introduced the project, three were working-group meetings, and the last presented the results of the consequences.
4) Organized community-based working groups to advise the project.
5) Developed specific tables and figures so people can relate to individual facilities (e.g., schools, hospitals, etc.) within the scenario area.
6) Released the scenario with a local media conference and distributed copies throughout the community (200 so far).

The scenario earthquake strongly shakes western Nevada and poses many serious geologic hazards, engineering risks, and potential impacts on important lifeline systems. Preparation for an event of this severity would, in general, be adequate for any earthquake that could affect the region.

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California's Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse

Sarah K. Nathe, Senior Program Planner - Earthquake Program, California OES

Quick History
For over a week following the Northridge earthquake, a small part of a Pasadena office building served as the nerve center of an extensive reconnaissance effort. Every morning, engineers, earth scientists, social scientists, and public policy experts fanned out from the California OES office to examine and analyze the earthquake's effects in the San Fernando Valley and other areas of greater Los Angeles. After sunset, all of them returned to the crowded office on Green Street to spend long hours talking about what they had seen and heard.

This was the first large-scale operation of the Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse, a collaborative effort of many California organizations involved in earthquakes. The Clearinghouse provided a single point of contact for easy exchange of information among practitioners, researchers, emergency managers, and investigators from other states and countries. The information gathered by the individual field investigators became invaluable to all participants when it was shared in the briefing room late in the evening. In the immediate term, it influenced some emergency response activities and focused earth science appraisals. Over time, the data laid down in daily strata at the Clearinghouse were analyzed by various organizations for reconnaissance reports, for an understanding of the implications for practice, and for recommendations about changes to policy.

After a number of earthquakes in the 1980s, rudimentary clearinghouse efforts were undertaken by two California state agencies-OES and the Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG)-and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). After the 1992 Landers/Big Bear clearinghouse, those participants came to two realizations: 1) earthquake disasters in California were attracting progressively larger numbers of earthquake professionals to the affected area, from within the state and without; and 2) individuals? field observations can best add to the common information base when there's a plan for coordinating their deployment and reporting.

Not long before the Northridge quake, representatives of California OES had initiated discussions about a collaborative clearinghouse operation with other public and private sector organizations active in California. Parties in this management group were the CDMG and USGS, which are responsible for seismologic and geologic assessments of earthquakes; the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), with its charter to investigate the structural and social effects of all major earthquakes in the U.S. and abroad; and the California Seismic Safety Commission, the main seismic policy body in the state. By the afternoon of January 17th, 1994, all the discussants were on their way to Pasadena to set up a shop they had only talked about in general terms.


Plans for the Next Quake
The size and unqualified success of the Northridge operation have inspired California OES to formalize both the plan and the participating organizations. Over the past year, OES planners have convened a number of meetings for all pertinent and interested organizations to work out, and commit to paper, the roles and responsibilities of each one in the Clearinghouse. Informed by the experiences in Northridge, organizational representatives have developed a short but coherent blueprint for activating the next post-earthquake clearinghouse.

Organizations involved in the clearinghouse planning process are listed below:

· Applied Technology Council (ATC)
· California Office of Emergency Services (OES)
· California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG)
· California Seismic Safety Commission (CSSC)
· Caltech University
· California Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering (CUREe)
· Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI)
· Earthquake Engineering Research Center/NISEE, U.C. Berkeley (EERC)
· Federal Emergency Management Agency, Region IX (FEMA)
· Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)
· Structural Engineers Association of California (SEAOC)
· Technical Committee on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering (TCLEE)
· Berkeley Seismographic Station (UCBSS)
· United States Geological Survey (USGS)

Each of these organizations has a role in conducting field observations-of natural phenomena, structures, or social systems-collecting data; or analyzing and disseminating information.

The plan is to set up the clearinghouse quickly following a quake to perform the following functions: 1) be the "check-in" and "check-out" point for all researchers and officials who arrive at the scene; 2) collect and verify perishable reconnaissance information; 3) convey that information to the Planning/Intelligence function of the OES Regional Emergency Operations Center (REOC); 4) provide updated damage information to all interested parties, through daily briefings and reports; and 5) track where investigators are in the damaged area.

Only three short years after the Northridge quake, we have a greater capability to track people and document findings through computer databases, information management systems, and GIS. A geographic information system will be situated at the clearinghouse to integrate, as well as display, field observations.

Operations
An earthquake in an urban area will trigger Clearinghouse establishment when it is damaging and has a magnitude of 6.0 or above. In a remote, less densely populated area, an earthquake must be larger and damage a substantial number of structures in order to prompt Clearinghouse activation. A federal disaster declaration is not necessary to activate the clearinghouse, but there will always be activation when there is a federal disaster declaration for earthquake damage.

In the first 24 hours after a serious quake, the California OES region in which the earthquake strikes will provide, or work with other governmental units to arrange for, the clearinghouse space. Assistance in this will come from the four management organizations mentioned earlier, or from other groups with available personnel and resources.

The duration of clearinghouse operation is dependent on the magnitude of the damage and extent of the response and early recovery periods. Clearinghouse operations can be reduced when need for reconnaissance decreases. Termination will be determined by the management group, based principally on their sense that critical perishable information has been gathered.

Locating the clearinghouse is a fairly big challenge. It should be as close to the affected area as possible, with relatively easy transportation to and fro. At the same time, it must have access to the OES REOC for information sharing. Since the REOC may not be proximate to the damage area in certain earthquakes, the Clearinghouse will be electronically connected. The clearinghouse operation requires phones, electricity, computers, working and display space, and meeting room large enough to accommodate a minimum of 50 people for the all-important evening briefings.

Logistics
The lead staff member will come from OES, or be designated from one of the other organizations centrally involved in clearinghouse establishment. A variety of sources will contribute staffing: OES, CSSC, FEMA, EERI, and SCEC will assign staff to the operation; CUREe will provide student assistants; and CDMG and USGS will position technical liaisons there. To maintain databases on damaged structures, deployed personnel, and other areas of concern, assistance will come from SCEC and EERC/NISEE. GIS-related activities will be done by staff from OES, FEMA, CDMG, or USGS. Some participant organizations? (for example, Caltech or UC Berkeley Seismographic Station) staff members will be elsewhere, but in daily contact with the clearinghouse.

Financing
In the Northridge earthquake, the operation of the clearinghouse added few costs beyond those the participating organizations would have borne irrespective of clearinghouse activation. Space and most equipment were provided by OES. The participating groups with post-earthquake reconnaissance as a prescribed task covered the costs of their involvement by their own budgets. Groups which define the clearinghouse activities as outside their allowable expenses have a somewhat thornier problem. We are awaiting a determination by FEMA as to whether those latter organizations may claim reimbursement for their activities in a presidentially declared disaster.

Watching and Waiting
Last November we held a tabletop exercise to better specify each organization's participation in the Clearinghouse. Two scenario earthquakes-the Rodgers Creek in northern California and the San Jacinto in southern California-were presented to the group, and prompted a lively discussion of operational and logistical issues that continues to the present. We continue to have bi-monthly meetings of the participating organizations to refine the plan, ponder some imponderables, and get to know the people we may be working closely with some day in the not-too-distant future.

For more information on California's Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse, phone (510) 286-0858, or e-mail: Sarah_Nathe@oes.ca.gov

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WSSPC AWARDS IN EXCELLENCE


The Western States Seismic Policy Council Awards in Excellence recognizes achievement in different areas of earthquake mitigation, preparedness and response. This program is both an effective method to share model programs throughout our region, as well as to recognize the hard-working, creative and innovative efforts within the earthquake hazard reduction community.

It is the hope of WSSPC to bring greater visibility to exemplary state, county and local programs and policies and to facilitate the transfer of those successful experiences to other states.

ELIGIBILITY
State, provincial, county, or city governmental agencies in WSSPC member states are eligible for the WSSPC Awards in Excellence. Programs can be nominated by the originating agency or by an outside agency.

CATEGORIES
Awards will be given in the following categories:
· Mitigation Efforts · Educational Outreach Programs
· Response Plans/Materials (three categories awarded)
· Use of New Technology · Outreach to Business/Government
· Research Projects · Outreach to Schools
· Innovations (i.e. Private/Public Partnership) · Outreach to the General Public

SCHEDULE
August 15, 1997 -- Deadline: Applications are due to WSSPC Office
-- WSSPC Awards Committee begins to review applications
September 15, 1997 -- Awards Committee selects awarded programs
October 1, 1997 -- Winners notified and encouraged to attend WSSPC Annual Conference
November 6, 1997 -- Awards ceremony at WSSPC Annual Conference
January 15, 1998 -- Publish a volume of award winning programs

SELECTION CRITERIA
At each stage of the award selection process, the following questions are employed to determine whether the program or policy is eligible for further consideration:
· Is it a state/local/regional government sponsored program or product?
· Does it represent a new and creative approach to problem(s) or issue(s)?
· Does the program or product address significant problem(s) or issue(s) that are local, regional or national in scope?
· Has the program been operational for at least one year (since August 30, 1996)?
· Has the program or product been effective in achieving its stated goals and purposes?
· Could the program or product be easily transferred to other states or regions?

AWARD
The Western States Seismic Policy Council will be awarding certificates of achievement to finalists in the program categories. If funding is available, monetary awards will be made to the winning agencies. A description of each awarded program will be included in a WSSPC publication for wide distribution.

To receive a nomination application, please contact the Western States Seismic Policy Council office at (415) 974-6435 or e-mail us at wsspc@wsspc.org.

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SPOTLIGHT ON:
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE CENTER


The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) actively coordinates research on Los Angeles region earthquake hazards and focuses on applying earth sciences to earthquake hazard reduction. Founded in 1991, SCEC is a National Science Foundation (NSF) Science and Technology Center with administrative offices located at the University of Southern California. It is co-funded by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the Education and Knowledge Transfer programs are co-funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

The Center's primary objective is to develop a "Master Model" of earthquakes in Southern California by integrating various earth science data through probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. SCEC promotes earthquake hazard reduction by:
· Defining, through research, when and where future damaging earthquakes will occur in southern California
· Calculating the expected ground motions
· Communicating this information to the public

Since its inception in 1991, the Center directors and scientists have pursued this mission through a variety of methods, which include:
· securing long term balanced support for the essential elements needed for achieving a scientific goal, namely, infrastructure, disciplinary group research, and dissemination of acquired knowledge;
· assembling a critical mix of multidisciplinary expertise;
· fostering disciplinary groups and rendering help to resolve controversies within disciplinary groups;
· protecting promising areas of research at rudimentary stages of development;
· enabling orderly transfer of knowledge from basic research to its applications;
· rendering help to produce scientific consensus documents needed by the public;
· leveraging additional funding sources; and
· providing a contact for the community of users of knowledge.

Representing several disciplines in the earth sciences, SCEC-sponsored scientists are conducting separate but related research projects with results that can be pieced together to provide answers to questions such as: Where are the active faults? How often and where do we expect damaging earthquakes to occur? What size earthquakes can we expect? and What will be the nature of the resulting ground motions?

Scientific tasks include:
· Establishing dates of past earthquakes and rates of slip on southern California's active faults;
· Measuring the regional strain field as an indicator of earthquake potential;
· Improving predictions of strong ground motion parameters for plausible earthquakes, principally in the metropolitan areas;
· Exploring the fundamental physics of earthquake rupture;
· Improving the resolution of subsurface seismic wave velocities and geologic structures;
· Investigating the nature and significance of space/time patterns in seismicity;
· Constructing algorithms for seismic hazard analyses in southern California; and
· Developing near real-time seismology for notification, education, and outreach.

In addition, SCEC supports a wide range of infrastructure needs for the earthquake scientific community and others in southern California including regularly scheduled symposia, data and instrument centers, a regional permanent GPS network, and an Education and Knowledge Transfer Program with workshops dedicated to the needs of selected end-user groups.

KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER: SCEC actively encourages collaboration among scientists, government officials, and practitioners. Users of SCEC scientific products (reports, databases, maps, etc.) include disaster preparedness officials, practicing design professionals, policy makers, southern California business communities and industries, local, state and federal government agencies, the media, and the general public.

Knowledge transfer activities consist of end user forums and workshops, structured discussions among groups of end users and center scientists, written documentation and publication of such interactions, and coordination of the development of end user-compatible products. Other forms of communication include quarterly newsletters and topical reports.

Knowledge Transfer - Some Current Tasks and Projects
· Research Utilization Council and Representatives from End-User Groups
· Insurance Industry Workshops
· Vulnerability Workshops (promote information exchange with southern California city and county officials whose concern is the effect of large urban area earthquakes on the built environment)
· Media Workshops
· Field Trips (local tours led by experts on major active faults of southern California)
· Quarterly Newsletter (highlighting ongoing research; lists new SCEC-sponsored publications; announces SCEC-sponsored activities, workshops; provides an information resource guide)

EDUCATION PROGRAM: Learning about earthquakes is essential to meeting the hazard head-on, and being educationally, physically and mentally prepared. SCEC has committed itself to developing an earthquake education program, the SCEC GLOBAL SCIENCE CLASSROOM. This program is being designed to reach schools, museums, libraries and the public via numerous workshops, special events, internships, electronic and mechanical exhibits, and multimedia and telecommunications programs.
· Summer internship program for undergraduates
· Introduction of CUBE (Caltech/USGS Broadcast of Earthquakes) into High Schools.
· "SEISMIC SLEUTHS" National Leadership Institute.
· Summer Vine Program: About 1,000 elementary students learned about the natural and built environment.
· LARSE on Line: The Los Angeles Regional Seismic Experiment captured a kind of "CATscan" of the Los Angeles Basin, in order to learn more about the region's numerous earthquake faults.

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Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on Hayward Fault: A Scenario


Reported by: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute with support from FEMA, November 1996


At the 1995 Annual Meeting of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, a special day-long symposium was held on the multidisciplinary challenges of a major urban earthquake, using the northern Hayward fault as an example. The presenters covered all aspects, from the social and economical setting of the San Francisco Bay Area, through geologic, seismologic, and engineering aspects, to the emergency response and recovery issues that will challenge government and industry in the months and years after the earthquake.

This publication provides a valuable tool for planners, design professionals, emergency and risk managers, and public officials. By identifying the most vulnerable areas and structures, it provides the information needed to develop programs that will reduce future losses and speed recovery.

For those outside the San Francisco Bay Area, this fascinating document demonstrates how a scientifically credible scenario can be used to create awareness of and gain support for comprehensive programs to reduce earthquake losses.

Copies of Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault can be purchased for $15 prepaid plus $5 shipping/handling from the EERI. Order at 499 14th St., #320, Oakland, CA 94612-1934 or fax to 510/451-5411 with your credit card number.

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WSSPC Board of Directors Corner


At the last Board of Directors' Meeting, reworded mission and goal statements were adopted. As part of the Strategic Planning process, the Board has been reviewing and analyzing the vision and purpose of our organization. A full report will be sent to all WSSPC members. The plan will be submitted for consideration by the full membership at the November Annual Conference.
MISSION
The mission of the Western States Seismic Policy Council is to provide a forum to advance earthquake hazard reduction programs throughout the Western Region and to develop, recommend and present seismic policies and programs through information exchange, research and education.
GOALS
· Promote regional cooperation and the interaction of the members' Emergency Management Program and Geoscience Program representatives to cultivate, develop, and recommend seismic policies.
· Raise the overall awareness among all parties of earthquake hazards and methods to mitigate the associated risks.
· Serve as a resource for earthquake related materials, information and activities, in coordination with others.
· Provide advice to all policy implementing bodies on issues and research related to earthquake hazards.

President and Chair of the Board of Directors
Lorayne Frank Director, Utah Division of Comprehensive Emergency Management
Board Members
Robert J. Bezek Director, Wyoming Emergency Management Agency
James F. Davis State Geologist, Division of Mines & Geology, CA Dept. of Cons.
Larry D. Fellows State Geologist, Arizona Geological Survey
Jim Greene Administrator, Disaster and Emergency Services Division
Jonathan G. Price State Geologist, Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology
John C. Steinmetz State Geologist, Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology

 
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© 2006 Western States Seismic Policy Council. All Rights Reserved.   Last updated April 16, 2007