Earthquake Quarterly - Summer 1999

 

Table of Contents

From the Desk of the Executive Director

EqIP Agency Reports

FEMA's Seismic Rehabilitation Guidelines

Disasters by Design:
The Summary Volume from the Second Assessment on Natural Hazards

FEMA Project Impact Updates

Recent Fema Activitites in Earthquake Risk Analysis and Mitigation
by Stuart Nishenko and Claire Drury, Federal Emergency Management Agency

The First Statewide Earthquake Risk Assessment Using HAZUS-Estimated Losses in Oregon
by Yumei Wang, Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries

The Value of Employing Estimates of Future Earthquake Losses in Public Policy
by James F. Davis, California Division of Mines and Geology

From the Desk of the Executive Director

Dear WSSPC Community Member,

On behalf of the WSSPC Board of Directors, I am delighted to announce that Patricia (Patti) Sutch has agreed to become the Executive Director of the Western States Seismic Policy Council.

Patti brings a wealth of relevant experience to the job. She earned her B.A. degree in Earth sciences and anthropology from Case Western Reserve University and her M.S. degree in engineering geology (with a seismic hazard focus) from Stanford University. Patti has twenty years of experience in the geoscience field, non-profit organization management, and business administration. Currently Principal and President of REG Review, Inc., a company formed in 1985 to prepare geologists for licensing exams, she resides in Mountain View, California. She has been an active volunteer with the Association of Engineering Geologists and is a California Registered Geologist, Certified Hydrogeologist, and Certified Engineering Geologist. Patti also competed twice in national competition as an ice dancer.

Patti will start her employment in late August and will attend the WSSPC Annual Conference, September 5-9, in Santa Fe, New Mexico. I have enclosed a copy of the conference brochure to assist in your registering for the conference. I hope that you will have an opportunity to meet Patti then and welcome her to WSSPC.

Sincerely,

Jonathan G. Price

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Southern California Earthquake Center

A new document produced by a committee of engineers and geologists with academic, practicing, and regulatory backgrounds has been published by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). "Recommended Procedures for Implementation of DMG Special Publication 117 - Guidelines for Analyzing and Mitigating Liquefaction Hazards in California" is intended to help engineers, geologists and building officials competently evaluate and take protective measures against the potential liquefaction hazard in many areas of southern California. Liquefaction is a process where loose sandy soils below the ground water lose strength due to strong ground shaking. This liquefaction could result in settlement and ground movements leading to damage to buildings founded in such soils.

The report is available as of Monday, April 19th through the Southern California Earthquake Center Outreach office for $10 per copy.

Phone 213/740-1560 for SCEC Outreach  Phone 213/740-5843 for general SCEC information Fax 213/740-0011 e-mail: SCECinfo@usc.edu

Central United States Earthquake Consortium

CUSEC embarks on the next chapter in its efforts to reduce the exposure that communities and business face in the central U.S. from an earthquake. Working with Walt Hays of the USGS and many public an private sector partners, a strategic plan for reducing the unacceptable risk form a damaging earthquake is being crafted for the central U.S.

This document is a long-term strategic plan to reduce the unacceptable risk from a catastrophic earthquake in the Central United States (Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi). A damaging if not catastrophic earthquake is inevitable in the Central United States (hereafter referenced as CUS). At present, without implementation of the strategic actions identified in this plan, an earthquake would be devastating to the people, urban centers, businesses, buildings, critical infrastructure, and environment in the CUS.

This plan is being prepared by a working group of the Central United States Partnership (CUSP), which was formed on March 2, 1999. CUSP consists of public and private sector organizations, many of whom have worked together in the past. They are available to provide leadership, resources, and political capital for implementing a comprehensive loss reduction plan throughout the CUS. At present, CUSP, a unique partnership led by the Central United States Earthquake Consortium (CUSEC), is comprised of: the following public-private sector partners:

1) four core organizations: a) the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) b) the CUSEC State Geologists (CSG), c) Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), and d) Mid America Earthquake Center (MAE),  2) an interim secretariat, United States Geological Survey (USGS), and  3) eight partners: a) Department of Transportation (DOT), b) Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). c) Association of Contingency Planners, (ACP), d) Disaster Recovery Business Alliance (DRBA, e) Extreme Information Infrastructure (XII), f) Institute of Gas Technology (IGT), g) American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), and h) Mid Continent Mapping Center (MCMC) (apart of the USGS)

Other public-private organization will be invited to join and help to achieve CUSP'S common agenda, which is to seek new and innovative ways to make earthquake loss reduction a public value in the CUS. CUSP exists to enhance the long-term capability of each partner to carry out its basic mission and to take advantage of new opportunities for political, financial, and technical support of programs and activities that will reduce potential catastrophic losses to buildings and critical infrastructure, protect people, businesses, critical infrastructure, and communities, and assist "Project Impact" communities and "Showcase Communities" to reach their goals.

Check back periodically to the CUSEC in Perspective portion of this web page as we continue to develop this exciting new initiative.

Institute for Business & Home Safety

The Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) is an initiative of the insurance industry to reduce deaths, injuries, property damage, economic losses and human suffering caused by natural disasters.  IBHS has recently revised its web site (http://www.ibhs.org), where you can test your natural hazards IQ, learn earthquake safety tips and obtain details on the 1999 Congress, "Safer by Design: A Natural Hazards Toolkit for the 21st Century", which will be held October 26-28 in Memphis, TN.  This fall, IBHS will be releasing the third brochure in their Homeowner's Retrofit series entitled "Is Your Home Protected from Earthquake Disaster?"  The brochure highlights both structural and nonstructural repairs that a homeowner can perform in order to protect their home from possible earthquake damage.  For more information,  contact IBHS at (617) 292-2003.

Earthquake Engineering Research Institute

The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute is the principal national society in the U.S. for professionals actively engaged in earthquake hazard mitigation. It has a uniquely multidisciplinary focus.   EERI members include researchers and practitioners, engineers, geoscientists, architects, planners, public officials, educators, and social scientists.  The Institute undertakes a wide range of activities.  In the past year EERI has prepared, for FEMA, an Action Plan for Performance-Based Design, and published a special report on Incentives and Impediments to Improving Building Performance.   A series of three publications on Lessons Learned Over Time have recently been published; one dealing with lessons from the Loma Prieta and Northridge earthquakes; one with lessons from the rebuilding effort in Maharashtra, India; and one with lessons from the Kobe earthquake. Two technical seminars on Earthquake Analysis Methods will be held in the fall; one in Salt Lake City and one in Newport Beach, CA.  An invitational workshop on developing strategies for the implementation of performance based design engineering will also be held in the fall.

Applied Technology Counci

ATC/SEAOC TRAINING SEMINARS ON IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF SEISMIC DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION

"Improving the Quality of Seismic Design and Construction" continuing education seminars for Building Design Professionals and Code Enforcement Personnel were held on Thursday, June 17, 1999 at the Sheraton Hotel in Concord, California, and on Monday, June 21, 1999 at the Wyndham Garden Hotel in the City of Commerce, California. The seminar curriculum was developed by the Applied Technology Council (ATC) and the Structural Engineers Association of California (SEAOC) on behalf of the California Seismic Safety Commission, and was funded from the Proposition 122 Earthquake Safety and Public Buildings Rehabilitation Fund of 1990.

The purpose of each 1-day seminar (the same seminar was presented at both locations) was to provide practical guidance for improving the quality of seismic design, inspection, and retrofit of buildings. Each seminar consisted of three concurrent sessions, one each for architects, engineers, and building department personnel. In each session, participants were introduced to a newly created training curriculum and set of job aids designed to promote and facilitate improvements in the quality of seismic design and construction in California. Building systems and components addressed included: wood-frame buildings, concrete and masonry buildings, and nonstructural components. The seminar addressed the roles and responsibilities of architects, engineers, and building officials in ensuring quality seismic design and installation of nonstructural components. Handouts included:

     a notebook containing an attractively formatted and easy-to-read curriculum describing how to improve the quality of seismic design, inspection, and retrofit of wood-frame buildings, masonry and concrete buildings, and nonstructural components;       job aids (checklists and other laminated materials) to facilitate inspection and design; and a series of Briefing Papers that succinctly describe and summarize, in user-friendly language, fundamental information about earthquake design and performance of buildings, as well as roles and responsibilities of architects, engineers, and building officials in the seismic design and construction process.

 For more information, contact ATC (555 Twin Dolphin Drive, Suite 550, Redwood City, California; phone, 650/595-1542; fax 650/593-2320; e-mail, ATC@atcouncil.org) or SEAOC (555 University Avenue, Suite 126, Sacramento, California; phone, 916/427-3647; fax 916/568-0677; e-mail, SEAOC@aol.com).

National Geophysical Data Center

The Solid Earth Geophysics Division of the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) continues to acquire, process, and analyze technical data that are useful in natural hazards risk assessment. Many of these data are now searchable on the Web including the geologic hazards photographs, significant earthquake data, earthquake intensity data, the earthquake strong motion inventory, and tsunami data (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/hazards.shtml).   The online version of the Natural Hazards Data Resources Directory has been updated. The Directory includes information on over 250 organizations that provide data and information on Geological Hazards, Meteorological Hazards, and Societal Response. The Directory also contains an extensive appendix that lists over 500 state, federal, and other hazard-related organizations.

NGDC developed and released an online "Natural Hazards Quiz". The quiz presents multiple-choice questions on all types of natural hazards. The questions range in difficulty and include historic, mitigation, and scientific information. The work on the Quiz and the Directory was done with funding from the Institute for Business and Home Safety.

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FEMA's Seismic Rehabilitation Guidelines Now Available

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has announced the publication of Example Applications of the NEHRP Guidelines for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings (FEMA 276). The Example Applications volume (FEMA 276) discusses and illustrates the process for applying the Guidelines (FEMA 273) through the use of real building examples taken from around the United States.

Organized around typical building types, the volume presents descriptions of actual buildings that have been seismically rehabilitated. The buildings come from all across the U.S., representing a wide variety of expected seismicities, ages, uses, and conditions, and have been upgraded to a variety of different rehabilitation objectives.

For each building type, there is a description of the characteristic structural system, a listing of typical seismic deficiencies commonly observed, corresponding suggested rehabilitation measures, and a tabulation of typical costs of seismic rehabilitation for that building type. Each building type is then illustrated by at least two examples of real structures (one in a region of high seismicity, the other in moderate or low) that have undergone seismic rehabilitation. These mini-case studies include a photograph of the building, present a list of actual deficiencies found, and describe the rehabilitation scheme that was developed to correct the deficiencies. The mini-case studies also include several historic buildings, and examples of using innovative technologies such as seismic isolation, energy dissipation, and seismic dampers.

For each major construction material (steel, concrete, wood, and masonry), one building is presented with example calculations for a FEMA 273 analysis. These calculations provide a detailed, step-by-step illustration of the use of all of the key procedures contained in FEMA 273.

Also available, FEMA 275, Planning for Seismic Rehabilitation: Societal Issues, another volume in this series, was published in March 1998 and is devoted to the examination of issues that might confront decision-makers at all levels as they plan to make a building or a population of buildings safe from the effects of earthquakes. The last document in this series is expected to be published in the fall of 1999. It will cover the results of the seismic rehabilitation structural designs of 40 buildings using FEMA 273. Prepared by carefully selected firms, the designs have been prepared specifically to test the usability and validity of the "Guidelines" and to recommend any change that may be necessary.

Example Applications is the third companion document to the NEHRP Guidelines for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings (FEMA 273). Other volumes in the set include the Commentary (FEMA 274) and Planning for Seismic Rehabilitation: Societal Issues (FEMA 275). These and all other FEMA publications and videos can be obtained by calling the FEMA Distribution Center at 1-800-480-2520.

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Disasters By Design
The Summary Volume from the Second Assessment on Natural Hazards

Twenty-five years ago, geographer Gilbert F. White and sociologist J. Eugene Haas published a pioneering report on the U.S.'s ability to withstand and respond to natural disasters. At that time, research on disasters primarily involved physical science and engineering. As White and Haas pointed out in their "Assessment of Research on Natural Hazards" (1975), little attempt had been made to tap the social sciences to better understand the economic, social, and political significance of extreme natural events.

Their work attempted to fill this void and, perhaps more importantly, they advanced the critical notion that, rather than simply picking up the pieces following disasters, the U.S. could employ better planning, land-use controls, and other preventive and mitigative measures to reduce disasters' toll. The report also paved the way for an interdisciplinary approach to disaster research and management, encompassing areas such as climatology, economics, engineering, geography, geology, law, meteorology, planning, seismology, and sociology.

Recently, more than 100 hazards researchers revisited the work of White and Haas to reassess the state of natural hazards knowledge in the U.S. by conducting the Second U.S. Assessment of Research and Applications for Natural Hazards, a project sponsored by the National Science Foundation and several federal agencies. They addressed a fundamental question: "Why, despite all our knowledge about the causes of, consequences from, and remedies for disasters, do losses continue to rise?"

Their findings are now available in a summary volume, "Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States" by Dennis S. Mileti. The book summarizes hazards research findings from the last two decades, synthesizes what has been learned, and outlines a proposed shift in direction in research and policy for natural and related technological hazards in the United States.

Among their many conclusions, the contributors to "Disasters by Design" found that one of the central problems in coping with disasters has been the belief that we can use technology to control nature and "solve" problems posed by natural hazards. Also, most strategies for coping with hazards have failed to take into account the complexity and changing nature of hazards; events in the past 25 years have shown that natural disasters and related technological hazards are not problems that can be dealt with in isolation. Losses from hazards result from shortsighted and narrow conceptions of the relationship of humans to the natural environment, and poor choices regarding where and how we will construct our communities.

To redress these shortcomings, the researchers recommend that the U.S. shift to a policy of sustainable hazard mitigation, a concept that links wise management of natural resources with local economic and social resiliency. To achieve sustainability, communities must take responsibility for choosing where and how development proceeds. "Disasters by Design" outlines objectives to reduce losses and advances several specific approaches for mitigating the effects of natural hazards.

"Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States" by Dennis Mileti (1999, 376 pp.) costs $47.95, plus $4.50 shipping and handling and can be ordered from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; fax: (202) 334-2451; WWW: http://www.nap.edu/bookstore.

Two prior publications from this project are also available from the National Academy Press. Interested persons can view and print the complete text of these documents and/or order them on-line for a 20% discount:

 * "Cooperating With Nature: Confronting Natural Hazards with Land-Use    Planning for Sustainable Communities," edited by Raymond J. Burby    (1998, 368 pp., $38.36);    http://www.nap.edu/readingroom/records/0309063620.html.

 * "Paying the Price: The Status and Role of Insurance Against Natural    Disasters in the United States," edited by Howard Kunreuther and    Richard J. Roth Sr. (1998, 320 pp., $38.36): http://www.nap.edu/readingroom/records/0309063612.html.

Finally, a complete, extended bibliography  for "Disasters by Design" is now available from the Natural Hazards Center Web site: http://www.colorado.edu/hazard/assessbib.html.

This list of literature comprises all the citations provided by the numerous researchers, practitioners, reviewers, and others who contributed to the book.

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FEMA Welcome New Project Impact Partner:
Environmental Systems Research Institute

The Federal Emergency Management Agency's Project Impact: Building Disaster Resistant Communities welcomed a new business partner, Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), today in a signing ceremony held at FEMA headquarters. 

ESRI, a world leader in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software, has developed an Internet web site that displays multi-hazard maps and information. The information is provided primarily as an educational tool so people can learn about the hazards they face. The ESRI natural hazards web site (www.esri.com/hazards) is linked to FEMA's web site (www.fema.gov).

"ESRI has made a significant commitment to encourage the use of Geographic Information Systems in communities across the country and to provide them with information that will assist in that effort," James Lee Witt, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said today at the partnership signing ceremony. "We welcome them to Project Impact."

Project Impact community Jefferson County, Kentucky, already has used ESRI's GIS data and software to help it include natural hazard damage prevention as a routine part of decision-making at the county level. Use of the system helped save lives and property during the March 1997 flood.

The ESRI hazards web site is designed to help Project Impact and other communities start assessing their risks. Although the maps provided should not be used for analysis and legal determinations, the web site will provide information about where to get more detailed information. The web site also will provide tips for using GIS in support of achieving Project Impact goals and objectives, especially hazard identification, risk assessment, public awareness and mitigation planning and management.

Another component of the Project Impact agreement is that ESRI will incorporate the concepts and purposes of hazard identification, risk assessment and damage prevention into materials prepared for primary and secondary school students and for college and university students.

In addition, ESRI has volunteered to work with the Geographic Sciences community to develop new GIS products to support hazard identification, risk assessment and mitigation activities.

FEMA's Project Impact: Building Disaster Resistant Communities is changing the way America deals with disasters by encouraging communities to take measures to prevent disaster losses. There are 118 Project Impact communities across the country.

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Recent FEMA Activities in Earthquake Risk Analysis and Mitigation

by Stuart Nishenko and Claire Drury

ABSTRACT

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) released the HAZUS^® earthquake loss estimation methodology in 1997.  This methodology, developed under a cooperative agreement with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), assists state and local emergency managers in estimating seismic risk to their jurisdictions in order to focus planning and mitigation strategies.  The methodology also provides the capability to conduct post-earthquake loss estimation for emergency response, and provides a nationally consistent exposure and inventory database to compare seismic risk across multiple regions throughout the United States. HAZUS-related research and outreach activities are summarized, as well as an overview of the HAZUS99 release and plans for the development and release of wind and flood loss estimation modules.

KEYWORDS: earthquake modeling; geographic information systems; HAZUS^®; loss estimation; mitigation; Project Impact.

1.   INTRODUCTION

The recent Northridge, California and Kobe, Japan earthquakes were wake up calls for the earthquake community.  These events raised awareness about the damage potential of a moderate-sized earthquake striking close to an urban center, and demonstrated that high risk could be present in areas of low seismic hazard. Many questions were raised about the earthquake problem in the United States – were seismic policies focused on regions of high risk or high hazard? Did cities like Boston or New York have a high enough risk to experience a disaster like Kobe, despite their low seismic hazard?

 In the past, much of the perception of the ‘earthquake problem’ was based on an understanding of the earthquake hazard – the location of faults, geology, and the distribution of strong ground motion in space and time - instead of earthquake risk, which is a product of the hazard, the population and building exposure, and the vulnerability. Policy, land use, and development decisions at the Federal, state, and local level are risk-based decisions and need appropriate inputs. Areas of high earthquake risk may not always be coincident with areas of high earthquake hazard.

Detailed information is available about the earthquake hazard in different regions of the United States through the efforts of the US Geological Survey and the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program. There are few corresponding risk maps, however, that could be used for risk-based earthquake planning and mitigation.  Most of the general understanding about risk is restricted to property damage, insured losses, and casualties related to specific scenario events or regional probabilistic loss studies (NRC, 1989; NIBS, 1994).  Until recently, there was no nationally consistent earthquake loss estimation methodology for the United States. Without such a standardized technology, it was infeasible to compare levels of damage or losses between regions. 

In support of the National Mitigation Strategy, FEMA has developed a standardized earthquake loss estimation methodology, HAZUS (Hazards United States) that uses a nationally consistent hazard, exposure, and inventory database to estimate earthquake losses throughout the United States. HAZUS provides local, state, and regional emergency management officials with the tools necessary to plan and stimulate efforts to reduce risk from earthquakes and to prepare for emergency response and recovery following an earthquake.

HAZUS is built on an integrated geographic information system (GIS) platform that rapidly produces regional profiles and estimates of earthquake loss. HAZUS is currently available in both MapInfo and ArcView versions. The methodology has been tested against the experience from several past earthquakes and against the judgment of experts, and has been judged capable of producing results that are credible for the intended purpose.  Additionally, a series of pilot studies were conducted in Portland, OR and Boston, MA.  Detailed descriptions of the HAZUS methodology can be found in the HAZUS Users Manual and Technical Manuals (NIBS, 1997a,b).  A series of articles in the special issue of Earthquake Spectra on Loss Estimation (Brookshire et al., 1997; Kircher et al., 1997a,b; Whitman et al., 1997) provide additional information.

Jamieson and Milheizler (1997) reviewed the development of the HAZUS methodology and provided a description of the individual modules (Potential Earth Science Hazards, Inventory, Direct Damage, Induced Damage, Direct Loss, and Indirect Loss) that comprise the HAZUS methodology.

This article summarizes research and outreach activities in the United States since the release of HAZUS in 1997, provides an overview of model improvements in HAZUS99 and discusses plans for the development of wind and flood loss modules. 

2.CURRENT HAZUS ACTIVITIES

2.1           National Activities

2.1.1        Project Impact 

HAZUS is an important tool in FEMA’s Project Impact initiative, a program to reduce losses from natural disasters and make communities ‘disaster resilient’ through public and private sector cooperation.  Project Impact utilizes a 4-step approach to creating safer communities –

·           forming partnerships

·           assessing hazards and risks

·           prioritizing mitigation needs

·           communication with the community.  

Examination of the community’s risk for natural disasters and identification of its vulnerabilities to those risks are essential to successful mitigation. HAZUS inventory data was used for the analysis of several different hazards, including earthquake, flood, wind, and wildfire, to produce a Community Profile for seven pilot Project Impact communities.  The HAZUS loss estimation methodology is being used to estimate earthquake losses in two Project Impact communities with significant exposure to earthquakes - Oakland, CA and Seattle, WA.   The other hazards are being examined by overlaying the HAZUS inventory with hazard layers and using GIS capabilities to approximate exposure and potential losses.  These multi-hazard data layers are available with HAZUS on supplemental CD-ROM’s.  In addition, FEMA is providing each Project Impact community with HAZUS software and assistance as needed to use HAZUS to conduct baseline earthquake risk analyses to facilitate mitigation planning.

2.1.2 Annualized Earthquake Loss

Since HAZUS is a standardized methodology with a nationally consistent inventory, it provides the perfect platform to assess and compare seismic risk across multiple regions throughout the continental United States. This analysis compares earthquake risk in terms of average annualized losses (AAL), which is a measure of the annual economic loss to the general building stock resulting from earthquakes of varying size and return period (100 to 2500 years).  These loss estimates help to compare the average level of earthquake risk between regions in the United States.

Initial estimates of Average Annual Loss (Nishenko, 1998) using HAZUS97 were based on analysis of the coterminous United States.  Capital and income losses to the general building stock and essential facilities were estimated at $4.3 billion/year nationwide. The majority of losses (88%) were concentrated in the western United States with about $3 billion/year (80%) concentrated in California.  The high percentage of loss in California is consistent with the states large economic and population exposure, and high earthquake hazard. An additional $0.3 billion (8%) is located in Washington and Oregon.  The remaining 12% is distributed throughout the central and eastern United States.  For comparison, riverine flooding has averaged about $4.3 billion/year over the last decade, and annual hurricane losses are estimated at $3 billion during the last 20 years (USACE, 1998; NOAA, 1998).

In addition to the above data, the 1999  FEMA/NIBS Average Annual Loss study will contain loss data for Alaska and Hawaii and will be compatible with the Average Annual Loss module in the HAZUS99 release.

Risk management decisions also need to account for the exposure of the region in addition to the absolute level of loss.  A new index has been developed - the Annualized Loss Ratio (ALR), the ratio of average annual loss to the replacement value of the general building stock.  This index provides a measure of relative risk and can be used to compare risk across different geopolitical units such as census tracts, metropolitan areas, counties, or states.

2.1.3 Training

Regularly scheduled training classes are being held at FEMA’s National Emergency Training Center in Emmitsburg, MD. These classes provide 3 1/2 days of in-depth training on HAZUS and GIS.  Since the initial release of HAZUS in 1997, 12  classes have trained approximately 300 users. These users include emergency managers, planners, geologists, GIS analysts and others from 45 states, three territories, local governments, the Red Cross, the three regional earthquake consortia, and FEMA personnel.

2.1.4 Technical Support

More than 700 copies of HAZUS97 have been distributed to public and private sector organizations.  Technical support is being provided to HAZUS users via phone, fax, and e-mail.  FEMA has developed a HAZUS homepage that can be accessed through the Mitigation section of the FEMA Internet site (http://www.fema.gov). The HAZUS homepage describes current HAZUS developments and applications nationwide, and provide a network for HAZUS users.

2.2 Regional Activitie

In addition to national scale studies, HAZUS is being used by state and local officials to investigate earthquake mitigation alternatives, and for earthquake response and recovery planning.  Results of a user evaluation (Anagnos et al., 1998) conducted after the first release of HAZUS97 to state emergency managers indicated at that time that users had conducted analyses using the default inventory data included with the methodology. Subsequent user evaluations  (NIBS, 1999) show that users are now beginning to undertake the task of refining existing inventories and collecting more detailed local data for incorporation into HAZUS to improve loss estimates.

2.2.1 Western United States

Throughout California, the HAZUS methodology is being used to estimate levels of ground motion for specific fault systems (e.g., the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield; the northern Hayward Fault near Berkley, as well as the Rodgers Creek and San Jacinto Faults).  These estimates have been used to develop emergency response plans and to conduct response exercises in both northern and southern California.

FEMA Region 9 and California Office of Emergency Services has developed a San Francisco Bay Area HAZUS users group that has enabled widespread public and private sector participation.    More than 200 contingency planners, risk managers, and GIS professionals are working to improve preparedness for the next major earthquake in the Bay area.  More information can be about this project can be found at http://www.hazus.org

In the state of Washington, initial HAZUS projects in Seattle are focusing on transportation systems.  Additionally, a   volcano hazards database for Mt. Rainier and other Cascades volcanoes is being developed for use with the HAZUS inventory information to identify the exposure of communities to mudflows and other volcanic hazards.

Shortly after the release of HAZUS in the spring of 1997, the Portland METRO Emergency Planning Program used HAZUS analysis and maps generated by HAZUS to facilitate discussions of earthquake hazard mitigation measures at a workshop attended by representatives of the business, utilities, and public sectors of the community.  Since then, the Oregon Department of Geology and Minerals has used HAZUS to estimate damages from a M 8.5 subduction zone earthquake off the coast of Oregon and the 500 year return interval probabilistic ground motions for the entire state (Wang and Clark, 1999). 

The Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology has used HAZUS to develop earthquake mitigation proposals as well as run scenario earthquakes (Perry and dePolo, 1998).

2.2.2             Central United States

In Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, and Indiana efforts are underway, typically in cooperation with state university systems, to refine the existing default data and to incorporate inventory data from state and local sources.

Largely due to the efforts of the Central United States Earthquake Consortium (CUSEC), HAZUS has played a significant role in the Southwestern Indiana Disaster Recovery Business Alliance and the Southwestern Indiana Disaster Resistant Community Initiative.  Both groups are working to coordinate and guide long-term planning and implementation of regional efforts to reduce vulnerability to earthquakes, floods, and other natural disasters.  They are developing a HAZUS demonstration project that will emphasize training, team building, data inventory, strategy development, and program review at the community level.  The Central US Earthquake Consortium is documenting this demonstration project for the benefit of other Central US communities. 

2.2.3             Eastern United States 

A compilation of detailed geologic information is currently underway in the New York City metropolitan area to better define earthquake site response.  Additionally, inventory collection programs are underway to upgrade the default HAZUS inventory data and prepare for the multi-hazard version of HAZUS.  The formation of the New York City Metropolitan Area Loss Reduction Consortium (NYCEM) in 1998 will provide technical assistance for the development and implementation of mitigation and loss reduction strategies.

The Puerto Rico Planning Board has recently started a comprehensive HAZUS data collection for the San Juan Metropolitan area.  These data will be used to conduct an earthquake loss estimation study and provide input for refining emergency preparedness and response plans as well as identifying earthquake mitigation opportunities.

The Northeast States Emergency Consortium (NESEC) has developed an automated default Report Format to assist in developing HAZUS reports at the state, county, and community level.

Vermont has been active in mapping earthquake hazards in ‘soft’ soils and will use this information to develop appropriate mitigation activities in vulnerable areas.

Additional inventory collection efforts are underway in New Hampshire, where an innovative program is using Americorps volunteers to collect site-specific, all-hazards inventory data for incorporation into HAZUS.

North and South Carolina are working with HAZUS to refine the default inventory databases and are learning to use HAZUS products.

3             FUTURE HAZUS ACTIVITIES 

3.1                  HAZUS99

HAZUS99, which is scheduled for release in the fall of 1999, contains a number of improvements and additions to HAZUS97. 

The Potential Earth Science Hazards (PESH) module will include a 3-dimensional fault rupture model, new attenuation relationships for Hawaii and the eastern United States and the ability to model multi-segment fault ruptures.  An Average Annual Loss module, based on the study described in section 2.1.2, will be available to generate probabilistic Average Annual Loss estimates for building losses and casualties.

The Engineering Model will incorporate a sophisticated potable water network flow model.  This is the first network model to be implemented in HAZUS.   It is linked to the fire following model to refine estimates of water availability for fire fighting.  In addition, the non-linear push-over approach has been extended to calculate bridge damages. New building damage functions and improvements to the indirect economic loss model are also included.

To assist in real-time emergency response and recovery, HAZUS99 runs ten times faster than HAZUS97.  These times can be further improved using new generation of processors (500 vs. 166 MHz).  HAZUS99 is directly linked to the California Tri-NET seismic array at FEMA Headquarters I Washington DC and Region IX offices in California.  HAZUS99 monitors Tri-NET and automatically creates a study region and executes a analysis when a significant earthquake is broadcast. Once an initial damage model is developed, HAZUS99 can incorporate observed damage information for use in the post-event operational response.

Additional software and data changes include the ability to save and recall map workspaces for use in map generation and updating, and a comprehensive summary report engine.   HAZUS99 is compatible with MapInfo 5.5, ArcView 3.1 and Windows 98.   New national databases include bridges, railroads, the EPA Toxic Release Inventory, earthquake faults (including data from both the USGS and CDMG) and an updated Q3 flood hazard maps.

3.2            Multi-Hazard Loss Estimation

FEMA is currently in the process of expanding the capabilities of HAZUS to make it a multi-hazard loss estimation methodology by including the ability to perform loss estimations for floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, coastal storm surge, severe winter storms, thunderstorms, and hail. FEMA initiated the development of the wind and flood modules in 1997 with the creation of two expert committees to oversee technical development of the modules.

Initial module development was completed in early 1999.  For the flood module, this included an assessment of the state-of-the –art in flood loss estimation, followed by testing the most promising methodologies.  Alternative methodologies were tested in six communities having a variety of flooding conditions, recent experience in flooding, and current building inventories and maps. EQE International of San Francisco, California and Michael Baker, Inc. of Alexandria, Virginia are developing the HAZUS flood module. 

The wind module development has focused on hurricanes and has included the development of a physical damage and direct loss methodology for buildings and facilities.  A pilot loss study was conducted for Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties in south Florida.   Applied Research Associates of Raleigh, North Carolina are developing the HAZUS wind loss module.

A key element in the development of these modules is to have users provide input throughout the process. Initial Users’ Workshops for both the flood and wind modules have been conducted and additional workshops will be scheduled throughout the development process.   These workshops have been attended by a wide variety of potential users, including emergency managers, floodplain managers, state and local representatives, and others. The outcome of  these workshops is a Users’ Requirements Report that has been  furnished to the development contractor to ensure that the end product meets the needs of potential users.

In 2002, FEMA intends to release Preview Models for flood and hurricane to Project Impact communities.   This initial release will be limited to Atlantic and Gulf Coast hurricanes and riverine flooding and will compute basic loss estimates for residential, commercial, and industrial buildings, direct economic losses and shelter requirements.

4. CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of HAZUS in the United States has sparked interest and activity in earthquake loss estimation at the Federal, state, and local level. This activity has helped foster a greater awareness of the common challenges that we all face with respect to natural disasters and a willingness to work together to create safer communities for the future.

5. REFERENCES

Anagnos, T., Lawson, R. S., Schneider, P., and Drury, C., 1998, Initial Problems and Successes in Implementing the HAZUS Loss Estimation Methodology Throughout the United States, in Proc. 6th National Conference Earthquake Engineering, Seattle, WA. 

Brookshire, D., Chang, S. E., Cochrane, H., Olson, R., Rose, A., and Steenson, J., 1997, Direct and Indirect Economic Losses from Earthquake Damage, Earthquake Spectra, 13, 683-701.

Jamieson, G., and Milheizler, J., 1997, The Use of GIS in Loss Estimation and Risk Assessment, Proc. 29^th Joint Meeting of the US-Japan Panel on Wind and Seismic Effects, UJNR, May 13-16, 1997 Tsukuba, Japan.

Kircher, C., Nassar, A. A., Kustu, O., and Holmes, W., 1997a, Development of Building Damage Functions for Earthquake Loss Estimation, Earthquake Spectra, 13, 663-682.

Kircher, C., Reitherman, R. K., Whitman, R. V., and Arnold, C., 1997b, Estimation of Earthquake Losses to Buildings, Earthquake Spectra, 13, 703-720.

National Institute of Building Sciences, 1999, HAZUS evaluation survey results,   Washington DC

National Institute of Building Sciences, 1997a, HAZUS Technical Manual, 3 vol., Washington DC

National Institute of Building Sciences, 1997b, HAZUS97 Users Manual, Washington DC

National Institute of Building Sciences, 1994, Assessment of State-of-the Art Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodologies, FEMA 249, Washington DC 300 pp.

National Research Council, 1989, Estimating Losses from Future Earthquakes, FEMA-177, Washington DC 231 pp.

Nishenko, S., 1998, Average Annual Losses for earthquakes – a western perspective, WSSPC 20^th Annual Conference, Sept 15-18, 1998, Pasadena, CA., p. 37

Perry, J., and de Polo, C., 1998, HAZUS: A standardized regional earthquake loss estimation methodology: a Clark County example, Proc. 8^th Annual Nevada State GIS Conference, Jan. 14-16, 1998, Las Vegas, NV, p.32

Wang, Y., and Clark, J.L., 1999, Earthquake Damage in Oregon: Preliminary estimates of future earthquake losses, Oregon Department of Geology and Minerals Special Paper 29, 59 pp.

Whitman, R. V., Anagnos, T., Kircher, C. A., Lagorio, H. J., Lawson, R. S., and Schneider, P., 1997, Development of a National Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Spectra, 13, 643-661.

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The First Statewide Earthquake Risk Assessment Using HAZUS - Estimated Losses in Oregon

by Yumei Wang, Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries

Introduction

This paper presents the preliminary results from the first statewide quantitative seismic risk assessment conducted using HAZUS97 software.  Also, it provides background information on how this study was initiated as part of Oregon’s overall risk management strategy.  This study was conducted to gain a multidisciplinary perspective on possible future damage and public safety issues.